A Few Little Books Online ShoppingEverything You Always Wanted To Read

Lay To Lose On Betfair: Gold At The End Of The Rainbow? Truth And fiction. Part 2

As an example let us assume that our chosen favourite is running in a Novice Hurdle at Kempton and is currently at 3/1 to win on course.

Betfair has championed the use of decimal odds in order to enable the market trading style interface that adds so much to its appeal.

To calculate the decimal odds for a fractional SP add one to the betting shop SP and then 0.5.

Where do we get the extra 0.5?

Well part of the beauty of Betfair is that you are not having to pay the bookmakers for the luxury of being able to place bets on horses. I.e. the bookies overround or profit margin.

So if we place a back to win, all we are doing is setting up an exchange of money at an agreed SP with other punters who are placing money on the same horse but their opinion is that it will lose.

Betfairs margin is a 5% commission taken only on winnings.

We can calculate roughly that our favourite at Kempton will be around 4.5 to back on Betfair.

But to get an actual lay price we have to consider the market spread between the back and lay price.

The market spread, in stock market parlance, is the difference in price between buying and selling a share and equates to the difference between backing and laying a horse.

In order for a book to balance on Betfair it will always be more expensive to lay a horse than to back it, so our favourite at Kempton will be at around 4.7 decimal to lay.

But therein lies the rub.

You lay the favourite to lose at 4.7 and it does so, your winnings are £1 less the Betfair commission at 5%, so you get your stake back, plus £0.95. That’s all very nice.

For arguments sake let’s say the contenders do not get up at all.

Your favourite breaks from his torpor and delights the mugs with a sterling win.

Lay Liability = Lay Stake x Lay Odds – Lay Stake

You are left with the entire liability of your £1 (stake) * 4.7 (odds) – £1 (stake) = £3.7 (lay liability)

That may not sound so bad but compare it closely with what you stand to win.

Lets examine what will statistically be the most likely scenario for a given days laying.

From a total of 5 races at 3/1 you select 4 losing favourites and only 1 winning favourite.

Your profit on the day is a magnificent £0.30 !!

Unfortunately we can see straight away that this is meagre reward for finding weak favourites in 5 races.

It has to also be noted that the favourites are the horses which have the lowest SP’s of all horses in the race.

A deeper analysis of horse racing data taken over the last 15 years shows undeniably that taken across all flat races 33% (1 in 3) favourites at SP do actually win their respective races.

Flat handicaps considered the most unreliable source of favourites in the business go on to win 25% (1 in 4) of their races

The most reliable source of favourites come in NH racing, with 38% of NH races won by the favourite, adding in the handicap factor for NH reduces the win ratio to 30%

So looking to the average for all favourite stats, we can say unequivocally that across the board, approx 1 in 3 UK horse races are won by favourites, yet my earlier analysis proves that you will need to select 4 losing favourites from 5 at 3/1 in order to make an 8% profit.

Anything less will result in a loss.

From a psychological perspective laying to lose creates the reverse situation to a back to win strategy.

When operating back to win you will experience a series of small losses with associated anxiety interjected by the elation of a large win.

When operating lay to lose you will experience a series of satisfying small wins followed by the devastation of a large loss.

With either strategy, results should be analyzed weekly, monthly and yearly.

Horse racing results are by nature highly cyclical, there will be periods of large profit followed by periods of intense loss.

Different seasons, different climactic conditions, different days of the week.

All the usual fundamentals of racing add up to a rich cocktail which cannot be over analyzed in the short term. There are a colossal myriad of factors that can result in long unbroken periods of loss or victory.

The poorer lay manuals (of which there are many) will not talk about the psychology of Betfair strategies, but I personally believe it is extremely important to assess early on whether you are suitable to a trading or gambling lifestyle.

To draw an analogy, some people will keep their money in a high interest bank account, some people will put it in stocks and shares. Where would you rather be at the moment?

Whichever strategy or strategies you decide to develop, you will spending many hours at your computer using an enormous amount of brain power and mental energy.

Racing does entail a good dose of anxiety, faith and hope.

You will experience days where the hours of effort go totally unrewarded.

The amount of mental energy and anxiety that you can expend on the Betting Exchanges is astonishing and really is something that should be factored in by anyone thinking about using Betfair to make serious money.

Lay to lose, and back to win can both be mentally exhausting

To make any pure lay or back strategy profitable will require many hours of research, on and offline, a degree of anxiety and mental debate, a solid staking strategy and a good degree of uncertainty.

To see your entire days work wasted on the last race of the day is not always conducive to anyone with a weak mental constitution.

As explained most of my work is involved with trading, dutching and bookmaking strategies that employ selection systems based on fundamental form research and analysis of historical horse racing data.

My own techniques require the advanced facilities provided by BetAngel Professional

I do not employ pure back or lay strategies myself except for fun.

I do describe a basic “value back to win” strategy on my website

Two colleagues have been following the system and by adding their own contexts have reported significant profits.

In the final article in this series i discuss in more detail my own methods for Betfair success and reveal the best online resources to get you started on the path to long term profits.

About the author

Mike J Davies is a Horse Racing Expert and a Betfair Trader and Advisor. For a free demonstration of scalping the Betfair racing markets, and advanced Betfair technical training => Betting-Exchange-Trading.com

Don Quixote and Sancho Panza beaten Photo Mugs A scene from Cervantes novel Don Quixote — the hero and his squire Sancho Panza have been beaten. ….

Don Quixote attacks a windmill Photo Mugs A scene from Cervantes novel Don Quixote — the hero of the title attacks a windmill, believing it to be an enemy giant. ….

Don Quixote riding with Sancho Panza Photo Mugs A scene from Cervantes novel Don Quixote — the hero of the title rides with his companion Sancho Panza along a mountain pass…..

The Pretty Dead (Posterband) $0.99 A mysterious virus threatens to turn the world into mindless zombies. The infected exhibit early symptoms of extreme conformity. When the virus outbreak hits a small Catholic high school in Louisville, KY, naturally nobody notices. Blake always dreamed of being in a rock and roll band. His twin sister M. dreamed of saving the world. It looks like they’ll both have their chance. On their sixte…

Black Beauty (Clam) [VHS] $1.97 Don’t waste this one on your children: buy it for yourself. A spectacular adaptation of the Anna Sewell novel, this is faithful to the source material but creates a life of its own on the screen. Told from the point of view of the horse, it recalls a time and a place that could be both beautiful and cruel. Black Beauty faced both hardship and kindness as he passed through the hands of many owners …

Jurassic Park [VHS] $1.25 Steven Spielberg’s 1993 mega-hit rivals Jaws as the most intense and frightening film he’d ever made prior to Schindler’s List, but it was also among his weakest stories. Based on Michael Crichton’s novel about an island amusement park populated by cloned dinosaurs, the film works best as a thrill ride with none of the interesting human dynamics of Spielberg’s Jaws. That lapse proves unfortunate, …

Horse Whisperer [VHS] $2.00 For director Robert Redford the trick was directing himself. The Oscar-winning director (Ordinary People, Quiz Show) says that he is one kind of actor (in the moment) and a different kind of director (more controlling). Whatever the problems, Redford has worked it out beautifully in this leisurely paced adaptation of Nicholas Evans’s bestseller. When the prized horse of New York magazine editor’s …

Science Is Fiction: 23 Films by Jean Painleve $25.23 Offering views of aquatic life as seen through the eyes of a surrealist, French filmmaker Jean Painleve blurred the line between science and art with his uniquely compelling undersea documentaries. Along with 23 of Painleve’s shorts–including “Hyas and Stenorhyncus” (1929), “The Sea Horse” (1934), the animated “Blue Beard” (1936), and eight works accompanied by a new score by Yo La Tengo–this th…

mystery at Saddle Creek (Saddle Creek books) $7.95 A few months have passed since Bird regained her voice, and life at and around Saddle Creek Farm has settled into a nice, normal routine of school, riding, and fun. But the community is suddenly thrown into chaos when a neighborhood woman is brutally attacked on a local side road. When the police don’t act fast enough to satisfy the demand for justice, the situation goes from bad to worse, wi…

Riders Down $6.17 No one really notices that a fix may be in until Matt O’Connor, a Chicago-based columnist for a national racing newspaper, gets a call from Moe Kellman, a horse-owning acquaintance. Kellmans question for Matt: Was the death of ninety-two-year-old Bernard Glockner, Chicago’s oldest active bookmaker, suicide or murder? Glockner was Kellman’s late uncle and Kellman, a man not unfamiliar with the Chic…

Horse $10.99 Horse gives children a look at the world of horses and their riders, from the ancient world to today. Packed with information on horse anatomy and behavior, the books also provides information on the many ways humans have used horses for transportation, warfare, farming, and entertainment.

Horse Heaven $11.99 #1 NATIONAL BESTSELLER A NEW YORK TIMES NOTABLE BOOK "A WISE, SPIRITED NOVEL . . . [IN WHICH] SMILEY PLUMBS THE WONDROUSLY STRANGE WORLD OF HORSE RACING." –People "ONE OF THE PREMIER NOVELISTS OF HER GENERATION, possessed of a mastery of craft and an uncompromising vision that grow more powerful with each book . . . Racing’s eclectic mix of classes and personalities provides Smiley with fertile soil . . . Expertly juggling storylines, she investigates the sexual, social, psychological, and spiritual problems of wealthy owners, working-class bettors, trainers on the edge of financial ruin, and, in a typically bold move, horses." –The Washington Post "A NOVEL OF PASSION IN EVERY SENSE . . . [SHE DOES] IT ALL WITH APLOMB . . . WITH A DEMON NARRATIVE INTELLIGENCE." –The Boston Sunday Globe "WITTY, ENERGETIC . . . It’s deeply satisfying to read a work of fiction so informed about its subject and so alive to every nuance and detail . . . [Smiley's] final chapters have a wonderful restorative quality." –The New York Times book review "RICHLY DETAILED, INGENIOUSLY CONSTRUCTED . . . YOU WILL REVEL IN JANE SMILEY’S HORSE HEAVEN." –San Diego Union-Tribune Chosen by the Los Angeles Times as One of the Best books of the Year From the Trade paperback edition.

Victorian Fiction And the Cult of the Horse $100 This book is in New – Excellent condition

The Boy Who Cried Horse $6.49 1180 BC. Young Acheron is a liar. Everybody knows it. Troy is under siege and Acheron tells tales of Trojan bravery to entertain Prince Paris and the beautiful Helen at the palace. But when a stranger comes to the city to announce that the Greeks have departed, leaving a special gift of a wooden horse, Acheron is suspicious. He races to tell Prince Paris about the Greek plot, but will anyone at the palace believe him? Er, no, actually! As Aesop said, "There is no believing a liar, even when he speaks the truth." Young Acheron is a liar. Everybody knows it. But when a stranger comes to the city to announce that the Greeks have departed, leaving a special gift of a wooden horse, Acheron is suspicious. He races to tell Prince Paris about the Greek plot, but will anyone believe him? Terry Deary began his writing career with fiction for A&C Black. He is now author of over 140 fiction and non-fiction books, which have been published in 32 languages. His historical fiction for older children Tudor Terror has been praised as "a marvellous blend of fact and fiction" (School Librarian). His non-fiction has been consistently in the best-seller lists since 1994. His Horrible Histories celebrated their 10th anniversary in 2003, having sold 10 million copies worldwide and been adapted as television animations, theatre tours and museum exhibitions. Terry Deary was voted "Outstanding children's non-fiction author of the 20th Century" by books for Keeps magazine.

The Art of Fiction $12.99 In 1958, Ayn Rand, already the world-famous author of such bestselling books as atlas shrugged and The Fountainhead, gave a private series of extemporaneous lectures in her own living room on the art of fiction. Tore Boeckmann and Leonard Peikoff for the first time now bring readers the edited transcript of these exciting personal statements. The Art of Fiction offers invaluable lessons, in which Rand analyzes the four essential elements of fiction: theme, plot, characterization, and style. She demonstrates her ideas by dissecting her best-known works, as well as those of other famous authors, such as Thomas Wolfe, Sinclair Lewis, and Victor Hugo. An historic accomplishment, this compendium will be a unique and fascinating resource for both writers and readers of fiction.